Predicting BYU Football's 2020 Record

2019 was a rollercoaster of a season for the BYU Football team. They beat Tennessee and USC before losing to USF and Toledo. Then they bounced back to beat an undefeated Boise State team before losing to San Diego State and Hawaii. There was no semblance of consistency for the Cougar Football team in 2019, so why would there be any in 2020?

BYU fans hope that they'll see a more consistent team take the field in 2020, if there is a season at all, but the reality is that we are probably in store for another up-and-down season. The schedule for the Cougars is daunting in 2020 will games vs the likes of Arizona State, Utah, Minnesota, Missouri and Stanford. Couple that with the questions that remain from 2019 and it's a hard challenge to try and foreshadow what will happen this year in Provo. But that won't stop me from trying.

If you put any trust into ESPN's FPI Power Index - I don't, but you can if you want - you'll see that they have BYU pegged for a 5-7 season, which is not what BYU fans want after going through the ups-and-downs of 2019.

So when you break down this coming year for the Cougars, how do you see it unfolding?

First, we need to identify the guaranteed wins, or the wins that are close to it. Going over BYU's 2020 schedule, there's really only one guaranteed win, and that will come on November 21 at home against the North Alabama Lions.

Next, we should identify the should-be wins. These are games that BYU should win, but there's a chance they can't get the job done, as we saw last season against USF and Toledo. Here there are a few wins that BYU should be able to get. Utah State should be a win on October 2 in Provo. The Aggies are coming off a disappointing season and will be without QB Jordan Love who was a first round NFL Draft Pick. Northern Illinois is another should-be win, while Houston looks to struggle for a second straight season as QB D’Eriq King is now a Miami Hurricane. While these should all be victories for BYU, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cougars drop a game or two out of this bunch.

Thirdly, we identify the 50/50 games. These are games could go either way. This group of games kicks off week one in Salt Lake City against Utah. Utah is the superior program, there's no doubt, but the Utes lost nearly everyone on offense and defense and will roll out a new look team in week one. With a new QB and RB, along with a defense full of new faces, BYU has their best chance to beat the Utes in 10 years this season. then there's games against Boise State, San Diego State, Missouri, Michigan State and Stanford that round out the 50/50 games on BYU's 2020 schedule. Boise State and SDSU are always hard fought games that could go either way, while Missouri is coming off a 6-6 season and is without last year's QB Kelly Bryant. Then there's Michigan State who is adjusting to life under a new head coach and Stanford, who struggled mightily in 2019.

Fourth, there are the games that are long shots. BYU has a chance to win these, but the chances are slim. The only game I see falling in this category is Arizona State for three reasons. First, the game is on the road in Tempe in September, so it's going to be hot. Secondly, the Sun Devils have superior athletes to BYU. And Finally, Jayden Daniels. ASU is going to be a tough win to get for BYU.

And finally, we have the games that would be shocking if BYU found a way to win. Luckily there is only one such game I see on the schedule that BYU shouldn't have any business winning. And that game comes against Minnesota on September 26. Minnesota is coming off one of their best seasons in program history and PJ Fleck has the Golden Gophers trending up. Factor in the fact that the game is being played in Minnesota and it will be a tough get for the Cougars. It's not impossible - see Wisconsin a couple seasons ago - but I wouldn't count on it.

So where does that leave Kalani Sitake and the Cougars? Here's how I see the schedule shaking out.

Sept. 3 - @ Utah: WIN

Sept. 12 - Michigan State: WIN

Sept. 19 - @ ASU: LOSS

Sept. 26 - @ Minnesota: LOSS

Oct. 2 - USU: WIN

Oct. 10 - Missouri: LOSS

Oct. 17 - Houston: WIN

Oct. 24 - @ NIU: LOSS

Nov. 7 - @ Boise State: LOSS

Nov. 14 - SDSU: WIN

Nov. 21 - North Alabama: WIN

Nov. 28 - @ Stanford: WIN

Good news is that I see BYU going 7-5 and making a bowl game in a year where the schedule may be the toughest it's ever been. The other good news is that I foresee the Cougars finally ending their losing streak to the Utes. Bad news is that BYU fans are growing tired of getting just 7 wins a season.

So what do you think Cougar Fans, would you be happy with a 7-5 season with an a bowl birth or are you growing tired of 7-win seasons?